نشریه آینده پژوهی دفاعی
پیاپی 27 (زمستان 1401)

The purpose of this article is to model variables and scenarios affecting emergency evacuation during crises such as war and earthquake. The statistical population includes 160 specialists, academic staff and graduate students. The research method is descriptive-analytical. Random sampling method and Cochran's formula was used. Analysis has been done based on Wizard, Any Logic and Anp software. 8 scenarios with a maximum of two incompatible factors are considered for modeling in Any Logic. The more critical scenario obtained from the simulation was selected and the solutions were checked in the Anp software. Previous researches have not explained the simulated scenarios with the scientific method. We have used decision-making techniques and combined them with simulation to select solutions and scenarios. The evacuation time in the fifth scenario is longer than the other scenarios and we considered this scenario more critical. The results of Anp show that the criteria of adding doors and removing obstacles with weights of 0.287 and 0.262 have been ranked the highest. According to the normalized weight in the sub-criteria, in the criterion of time, the escape time in the corridors and stairs (with a weight of 0.65), in the cost, executive dimension (with a weight of 0.608), in the ability to execute, the ability to direct the operation. (with a weight of 0.8), in environmental effects, impact on the public (with a weight of 0.705) and in guarantee of traffic, the status of traffic management (with a weight of 0.756) have been ranked highest.

It is very important to understand the nature of research in an academic field and the behavior of researchers in that field, especially in the case of interdisciplinary categories. The resulting understanding helps planners and researchers to have a more accurate road map to improve the future situation while understanding the past and present situation. This is also true for futures studies, especially since futures studies is inherently about the future situation, and understanding the past and its present shows which futures we have paid more attention to and which futures we have neglected. To reach this understanding, scientometric studies are needed, and in this research, its tools were used to analyze futures studies articles published in Iranian scientific journals. The population of this research was 920 articles published in the field of futures studies. The results showed what the co-authorship network looks like based on the centrality measures. Also, eight topic clusters were identified in this field and their position in the strategic diagram was determined. "Geographers in love with the future" cluster was identified as a cluster with high centrality and density. Also, "strategic foresight" and "futuristic higher education" clusters were introduced as immature and underdeveloped clusters. "Knowledge development", "Religious future", "Regional relations" and "Heavy weight of method" clusters were placed in the declining and emerging region, and the "ICT perspective" cluster was recognized as a non-core cluster.

From a military point of view, cyber power is perhaps the most important emerging tool of the past few decades. Currently, most of the armed forces of the countries are preparing to secure their cyber and cyber borders against such a new development. New military manuals are compiled based on cyberspace. In all levels of conflict, from internal rebellions to conventional war, cyber power is an inevitable factor of military capabilities, this capability is formed on the basis of modern technologies. Cyber ​​centers are an important organization in the military structure of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, and the results of its performance will play a vital role in the performance and efficiency of the army. Therefore, determining their performance based on new strategies is one of the important duties of the supreme commanders of the armed forces. This research was done with the aim of presenting the cyber power strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army. This research is based on an analytical-descriptive method and the use of available resources in the field of cyber power, as well as a comprehensive review using the SWOT analysis method to determine the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats, and further based on the opinion of experts and The interviewees determined the weight of each option and 15 strategies were determined as the most important cyber power strategies of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army.

This research in terms of purpose; Functional and in nature; It is descriptive-analytical, Which combines futures research methods; In order to answer what is the identification of future variables affecting the separation of powers in the constitutional rights of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Then, the scient metric software "VOSviewr" was used to draw the relationship between the effective variables of the future. Out of 45 counted propellants, 31 propellants were identified as variables in favor of segregation, 4 propellants were considered as conditional (relative) and 10 propellants were counted as variables opposed to segregation. According to the software, 17 most used words were identified from the words related to the separation of powers and constitutional rights, until 2010, and 18 most used words were identified from 2018 onwards. In addition to the emphatic impulses, the ruling of the Supreme Leader will be a key and vital impetus due to its moderating and unblocking role in various contexts (tribune phenomenon).

The aim of this study was to "identify and prioritize NEZAJA’s strategies in order to achieve the vision of the statement of the second step of the Revolution". The type of research is applied and descriptive-survey method. NEZAJA’s scientific-military experts are the present study population and statistical samples including 53 of them were selected by purposive sampling. First, by holding expert meetings regarding the analysis of the second step statement of the Revolution, 10 new strategies of NEZAJA were identified. Then, using the data collection tool (prioritization questionnaire), the identified strategies were prioritized. The validity of the questionnaire was confirmed based on the opinion of experts and its reliability was obtained based on Cronbach's alpha of %90.2. LISREL was used to fit the model and descriptive and inferential statistical indices were used to analyze the data using SPSS. The results show that the degree of prioritization of NEZAJA's ten strategies in order to achieve the vision of the declaration of the second step of the revolution is generally in a "priority". The prioritization of the identified ten strategies also showed that the strategies of "developing motivational subsystems" (with a mean and standard deviation: 3.92±1.412), "Improving combat readiness by developing technologies Modern UAVs, ground combat and war game systems "(3.75±1.440) and also" Establishment of a system for talent identification and elite defense of human resources" (3.72±1.350) have the highest priority for achieving the vision of the declaration of the second step of the revolution.

Air defense plays a decisive role in victory in today's battle scene. Meanwhile, the doctrine of passive defense is very important in air defense. Therefore, the current research was based on the explanation of the doctrine of passive defense with the approach of air defense (principles and basic requirements) based on a mixed method. Data has been collected by library and field method. 11 people selected as a sample for the interview among experts in the field of passive defense, air defense and military doctrine, who serving in strategic, command and staff jobs as well as position of major general and above and equivalent in the public organizations. In addition, the statistical sample for the questionnaire was selected from commanders, military and civilian officials related to active defense, passive defense at the armed forces, the country and related organizations. Data analysis was done by Grounded Theory and in three stages of open, axial and selective coding. The results led to eight principles of the doctrine of passive defense based on air defense approach, namely, readiness, agility, resilience, obfuscation, immunization, intelligence aristocracy, defense training and deterrence. More therefore, the basic requirements for each principle were determined separately. Quantitative results showed the principle of deterrence, intelligence aristocracy and immunity are the most important among other principles.